<span>Last updated: 17 March 2023 at 10:25 a.m. ET</span>
First published: March 17, 2023 at 10:12 a.m. ET
The numbers: America’s leading economic index fell 0.3% in February — its 11th straight decline — and continues to signal a coming recession.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had predicted a 0.4% decline.
The Leading Economic Index, also known as the LEI, is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is improving…
The numbers: The US’s leading economic index fell 0.3% in February – its 11th straight decline – and continues to signal a coming recession.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had predicted a 0.4% decline.
Large image: The economy has slowed due to the end of pandemic stimulus and the effects of high inflation, which has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs typically tame inflation, but at the cost of weaker economic growth.
Although the leading index has signaled a recession for months, the economy is still expanding. A big question is whether the recent banking crisis will end up being a turning point. So far, authorities appear to have contained the damage.
Key details: Eight of the 10 indicators tracked by the Conference Board fell in February.
A measure of current economic conditions, meanwhile, rose a scant 0.1% in February.
The so-called lagging index — a look in the rearview mirror — also rose by 0.1%.
Look forward to: “The leading economic index still points to the risk of recession in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of economic indicators at the board.
“The recent financial turmoil in the US banking sector is not reflected in the LEI data, but could have a negative impact on the outlook if it continues,” she said.
Market reaction: Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
and the S&P 500
SPX
fell in Friday trading on nagging concerns about the US financial system following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.